Originally Posted by
runway30
At the moment we are looking at a very sharp, hopefully short recession.
Hoping for a V-shaped recession, yes. That's why so much attention is turning now to how governments can successfully navigate their way out of lockdowns.
The problem is that any such strategy has to be plausible. Since a vaccine isn't around the corner, either the virus has to be stopped in its tracks (perhaps possible in NZ) or under very tight control (the South Korea model). And/or we have to lower both the spread
and the lethality - via effective treatments - to the point that the average Joe and Jane don't think they are threatening their own lives or their family's and friends' lives by going to work.
The lockdowns are now buying us some time to do that - but it's such a pity that so many of our leaders squandered the warning from events in Wuhan because a lockdown is so much more costly and risky than early action.
One example of post-lockdown planning:
aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening