Originally Posted by
easyflyer83
I’m not saying this time round will be the same but during the last downturn there was strong evidence that people actually ring fences money for an holiday and that the main holiday was increasingly being seen as more of a necessity as opposed to a luxury.
Totally off aviation, but you may not know that personal finance experts recommend that people have a savings cushion of three months in case something unexpected would happen. The reality is that most people don't have three weeks of cushion. Presently much of the population is going to wind up either on furlough, with just 80% of their income paid by the government, and another tranche will be working but with their income drastically reduced. The only groups that are likely to be unaffected and have the luxury of being able to stash some cash for a holiday are those on final salary pension schemes, or decent annuities, of those working in the public and vital industry sectors.
People aren't going to have the luxury of taking a (foreign) holiday after 6 months of this, and I really can't see it lasting just the three. Optimists really need to take a reality check!.
I can see the commercial aviation industry virtually going back to "ground zero", and the clock being completely reset, with a myriad of new carriers and tour operators rising up, run by senior managers, each in small market segments as we had in the 1960s and 1970, and that they will bit by bit be consolidated in larger, though perhaps not global players. I say this because after this crisis has run it's course there will be far more urgent calls upon government support than supporting leisure businesses; especially after they have been splashing the cash keeping people's heads above water during the crisis.