What the post-Covid aviation world looks like will depend heavily on how this crisis plays out over the next 6-18 months, or thereabouts. For example:
- is the outbreak largely controlled within 6 months, or does it linger
- is the death rate kept (relatively) low, which might limit the long-term impact on the public psyche - or is there a deep social change in mindsets about (among other things) being in close quarters on airplanes
- how deep is the economic harm, and how quick is the economic recovery - which will affect how quickly demand for travel picks back up, especially in premium classes, corporate travel and leisure travel (so most travel)
- how do the airlines fair, themselves - do they reduce fleet sizes during the shutdown, are they in a financially weak position coming out of it, how do key competitors come out of it etc.
But, I think there are a few things I'd be willing to bet on:
- demand between Australia and Asia (possibly excepting Japan) will be lower, for longer, due to perception that travel there is higher risk - that may be a problem for Qantas, which has been wanting to redeploy the A380s onto Asian routes for a while
- Qantas is going into this in a far stronger position than Virgin, and so will come out of it in a far stronger position - I'd expect Virgin to downsize aggressively (TT fleet, A330s etc) and to have limited capital to invest in 2021-23, which may allow Qantas to pick up market share and profits (Government assistance may affect this equation - it's becoming pretty clear that the Government wants to retain Virgin as a strong competitor)
- if there is a bias towards Australians travelling to Western countries (Europe, US) or Latin America/South Africa - that might boost Qantas' PS plans (provided that premium travel recovers enough to fill the large premium class sections)
- Qantas will hold onto the 747s until it can work out whether demand will pick up enough to fill the A380s.