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Old 24th Mar 2020, 05:52
  #7 (permalink)  
TWOTBAGS
 
Join Date: May 2001
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Aviation as we know it will change substantially. At the top end of the industry the days of the Quad jet are done, maybe on a few select routes but the worldwide pax volume will not return anywhere as quickly as most people here hope and as the 787/350 have demonstrated lower volume point to point is the new norm and the 77W will be the big boy in town. Oil prices will see the NG & CEO stay for a longer time than NEO & MAX (cough cough) would have liked, airframe residual prices will falter as demand will be much weaker.
With a more focused view on Aus, TT's days are numbered but JQ will return with LR & XLR picking up quite a bit with their lower cost base and the punters in saving mode. The QF group 65% line in the sand total market share will be challenged, VA will become a leaner beast. VARA, Network & QQ will fight it out for world Fokker domination as the fuel price remains low until they can no longer sustain spares support and then cheap as E170/E190 will take over.
A lot of the old salts will actually enjoy LWOP and say bugger it and take up residence at the holiday house, go fishing in their tinny on the goldy or die worrying about the share price of their portfolio... but all three of those options will be much better than EA10 and 22hr TOD in a "sunrise special A350".
Personally having survived the last 30 years in aviation this is the flush the toilet needed and whatever comes back will not be as big as before, management will chase yield, volume wont exist because there are too many punters that are scared enough to buy too much bog roll and every freezer in the metro area.
Cash is king right now and if your like me and out of a job, enjoy it, the sun will still come up. Fix up the pushy and go for a ride just not to the pub and watch the footy 'cause that pleasure palace is gooooone to.
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