Qantas stand down 20,000 employees till end of May

[SecretAngel]

Originally Posted by CurtainTwitcher

Problem is SecretAngel, there is limited factual verifiable information. We just don't have the information to do the gold standard "Double Blinded Crossover Randomised Controlled Trials" Most of it is aggregated anecdotal evidence and case studies. We only really have the SARS data, even then, most of it is animal studies as SARS was totally eradicated from the human population. We are dealing with an enormous amount of uncertainty, and unfortunately, we all have to wait for more incoming information. In many ways, we actually dodged a very large bullet with SARS. The one positive was the lack of asymptomatic transmission.

There is a good book by the WHO providing excellent background information, SARS: How a Global Epidemic Was Stopped (direct link to WHO download). It doesn't take long into the book to see the timeline of events unfolding almost identically to that of COVID-19, substitute Wuhan for Guangdong). The one advantage we have now from SARS is the knowledge to use of PPE and quarantine by healthcare workers up front. A large number of transmissions (the book documents 250 infections from a single case alone in a Hong Kong hospital).

This disease, COVID-19 will probably have half the CFR compared to SARS, however, its transmission is both symptomatic & asymptomatic, and we therefore we will have many more cases. The final number of fatalities globally will likely be many orders of magnitude higher than SARS for this reason. In a perfect world, with access to a modern fully functioning health care system, the CFR is likely to be about 10x the flu. If there is a breakdown in the system (case study Italy) that number could be 30 to 50x the flu. The fatalities are likely to be in all age categories >20+, although skewed to the higher brackets and those with major underlying health conditions.

Because the entire global population is naive to this disease, there are no natural firebreaks to slow the transmission, unlike the flu. There are no other control options with the exception of essentially stopping all human to human contact until a vaccine or other treatment agent is discovered. The Washington post has done a nice visual simulation of the various strategies: Why Outbreaks Like Coronavirus Spread Exponentially and How to Flatten the Curve.

This is a great post. The comparison and key differences with SARS are really important - the fact that COVID19 can spread without showing symptoms, in particular.

This goes to Aerial's point too - he's right that if you factor in the asymptomatic and mild cases that never get tested, the fatality rate goes down. That said, you could do the same for most illnesses - there are stacks of people who get the flu, but never get officially diagnosed too. It's still potentially tens or hundreds of millions of deaths, if the pandemic went unchecked.