I just spent 20 minutes reading a bit of the CASA MOS about maintenance organisations.
My experience suggests that when maintenance and training schools close or go bankrupt due to Coronavirus, they will never reopen.
The reason is that while it was possible for a business that is a going concern to invest in the huge amount of documentation and extra staff to meet the CASA requirements for something like part 145, I don’t think a greenfield startup, say a couple of enterprising LAMES in a disused hangar, have a hope in hell of satisfying the administrative requirements, let alone having the funds to hire anyone who does, let alone pay for CASA evaluation.
When they go, they’re gone. They can’t be replaced. I speak as someone who ran a business during the last recession, for a while.