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Old 15th Mar 2020, 18:01
  #341 (permalink)  
SotonFlightpath
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
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With the way the situation is developing, I think the sensible approach for UK airports over the next few months is going to be a mixture of consolidation and temporary closure.

Having multiple terminals open at Manchester or Heathrow for example will simply not be tenable with what will in all likelihood be just a handful of flights each day. I know different airlines and groups are clustered to particular terminals, but with the low numbers of passengers being handled - probably not more than a few hundred per day at Heathrow for example - some form of manual check-in could be instigated. It simply won’t be worth having shops, restaurants, bars, duty free, check-ins, toilets etc open in every terminal and there probably wouldn’t be enough people available to staff them anyway.

Whilst I would imagine airports such as MAN, GLA, LHR etc will remain open, it would be more cost-effective to concentrate any flights that are still operating to these airports, with the likes of Bristol, Southampton, Exeter, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle, Liverpool etc being closed and mothballed to all but emergency traffic for a few months. Staff would still need to be paid, but it simply wouldn’t be financially viable to stock an airport with fresh food and other supplies if there is virtually no traffic.

According to data published today by University College London comparing transmission infection rates in various countries, using Italy as the ‘benchmark’, the UK is approximately 14 days behind Italy - so the whole landscape will almost certainly be very different in a few weeks from now.

Taking such measures may seem drastic, but it would hopefully allow more of our airports and airlines to survive the coming events. I think it’s quite likely that some of UK airlines and airports will not survive, at least in their present form, but I’m sure that there will be a gradual return to something nearer normality later in the year. However I do think investors and financial institutions including insurers will be very wary of the airline industry, and it could be many, many years before we see traffic return to previous levels - if ever with the current growing awareness of environmental considerations.
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