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Old 15th Mar 2020, 11:59
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Mascot PPL
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Glasgow
Age: 65
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A data science prof at UCL in london has been publishing some good data on progression rates in various countries to show what could be coming in the near future for those just starting to see in country transmissions e.g. UK is about 14 days behind Italy. He's not a epidemic expert but the data appears robust and the analysis seems logical to me.

Worth checking it out - COVID 19 Growth Rate

Good news for OZ is that hotter climates seem to have a less aggressive growth line than colder climates (see graph about 2/3rds of the way down the page).
NB for any folks not used to log graphs (hopefully not too many) a straight line graph is NOT a good thing - shallower slope is better (i.e. less bad) but still not good....

As someone who has just returned to the UK after 4 weeks in WA in 30+ degrees not so reassuring :-)

Stay safe.

This too shall pass....
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