Be very interesting to see what happens in China as they reopen.
epidemiologists have stated the epidemic will burn itself out once ~ 50% of us have been infected and are immune. This is heard immunity.
China has 80,000 cases of 1.47 billion people
= 0.006% of population. So zero heard immunity.
OK, so allow that they only diagnosed 8% of cases and there were many asymptomatic people never tested and never diagnosed
= 1,000,000 actual cases
= 0.07% of population
Based on these figures, it should run rampant as China reopens. Yet (so far) that is not happening according to business associates in Beijing and Shanghai.
it is all very odd.
if it doesn’t take off, then maybe most of the population were infected without getting sick.
We will need blood tests on large sections of the population to answer that. But maybe the true incidence is much much higher, and the % of serious cases & deaths is much much lower.