PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - New Zealand place harsh restrictions on travel
Old 14th Mar 2020, 12:56
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medod
 
Join Date: May 2019
Location: UK
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Originally Posted by topend3
its proven that if you limit arrivals you flatten the curve and slow the onset of the disease in the community. Italy’s explosion of cases is partly due to slow reaction to implementing harsh measures. All cases in NZ are overseas arrivals.
I think there's a term for this but I can't remember what it is: what you are describing is the exact inverse of reality. It has actually been proven that limiting arrivals has no or even a negative effect. Italy was the first country in Europe to ban flights from China and as a result passengers switched to other Europe and Middle Eastern hubs. As no-one knew these people were originating from China they were not told to self-isolate so they did not. When they became sick they went to ER rooms and infected many other people. The mathematics of an epidemic then did the rest.
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