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Old 13th Mar 2020, 03:17
  #332 (permalink)  
Ollie Onion
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 1,439
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‘Just the flu’ is totally underplaying the threat. It is not the disease itself that is the problem but the shear number of people that will become infected if the virus goes uncontrolled. Hospitals will quickly become overwhelmed. Australia with a population of circa 25 million means 15 million infections of which 150,000 - 300,000 will die with 3,000,000 requiring hospital care of which 1,000,000 will require ICU care. Now, I don’t think the Aussie hospital system has nowhere near enough resources to deal with those numbers so it is likely that anyone over 60-65 years old will be denied ICU treatment and told to do their best at home. This is the kind of event that could lead to society breaking down, minor crimes going un-investigated, all elective surgeries delayed and people curfewed at home. Of course the other option is to introduce social distancing measures, close borders when required and limit movement in an attempt to slow the spread to allow the health system to treat smaller numbers over a longer period. The thing the world is lacking is a co-ordinated strong plan, instead we have wishey washey policies being implemented in a haphazard way. I said it when this appeared in January and I will say it again, we have at least another 6 mo this of total disruption ahead and any business in a fragile state now won’t survive. On the up side at least when the recovery starts in the global economy is will be strong and quick.
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