For the time being, yes, the hiring boom is over. I would say that coming out of training now is the same as just after 9/11, or in 2009. In the UK alone, there are 600 ex flyBe pilots out of work. But, on the other hand I would say now could be a good time to start training, as in 2-3 years time we could be on the up again. Please note the words “could”. There are never any guarantees (look at what BA have just done, cancelling signed contracts...), and flight training is always an expensive gamble.
Much like the virus itself, my guess is that it will have devastating effects on the airlines already with serious health problems. It’s already happened with flyBe. Only the strongest airlines, with the healthiest balance sheets, cash reserves, and operational flexibility will survive. So sadly, yes, I do think that in the coming weeks there will be more airline bankruptcies, administrations, or liquidations. This will put even more pilots on the market.
But, we have to remain positive. As it stands, stronger airlines are confident that coronavirus is a short-term thing, hence the majority of which implementing “unpaid leave”, as opposed to redundancies. As a return to normality is expected once the virus has burned out, productivity is hoped to return to normal levels, making redundancies pointless. Providing this continues to happen, and employees are willing to take unpaid leave or go part time in order to alleviate the lack of income due current low numbers of bookings, as well as the implementation of cost cutting by the airlines, they will be able to keep heads above water and preserve jobs. This was highlighted brilliantly in a speech by the Southwest CEO.
If airlines take the hits, be pro-active, get through the next couple of months, and work on making their booking trends positive again, then there IS hope. There will be light at the end of the tunnel. It will be the end of the trough, and the very beginning of a long journey to a peak. Thankfully, most European airlines are doing this already, so I am confident this will not the end of commercial aviation, and come early Summer the bookings will be rising again. And when it gets past a certain level, recruitment will begin again.