Originally Posted by
SAM 2M
UK was a leading world class Safety Regulator long before EASA was born.
In the long term the CAA will no doubt cope. The question right now is how long it will take the CAA to develop its capacity to regulate effectively across the full range of activity, including State of Design responsibilities and the like. That means putting in place the resources, the processes and the people. And for the regulation to be credible and acceptable to other parties, the people will need to be suitably qualified and experienced - they do not grow on trees and are not likely to come flocking to the door at Gatwick just to be paid peanuts.
Unless the Govt decides to put in some funding, the resourcing position will probably get worse. Besides the impact of the Coronavirus contraction, you could not blame an ATO for deciding to stay under the EASA umbrella, issue EASA licences and have its new pilots destined for UK operators pay to transfer their new EASA licence. Over 7000 UK ATPL holders have transferred their licences offshore since all this started. The CAA will get no income from licensing work for these people and will have to raise charges elsewhere, which will increase the financial burden at individual and organisational levels and drive even more away. Airbus has already indicated that it might need to transfer its manufacturing capability out of the UK, probably to the benefit of France and Germany, to avoid the needless complications of 3rd country involvement in certification and airworthiness assurance. So no revenue there either. And what of the MROs who rely on a mix of UK and EASA work to survive? Another expensive twin-track system? How many UK AOCs will start to transfer assets to EASA MS registers?
Despite statements here that the UK will continue to operate within the EASA system until the end of the transition period (see the CAA Brexit site), the European Commission has already (in Jan) directed the removal of UK CAA staff from all EASA decision-making or decision-shaping bodies, apparently in response to UK Govt noise about a hard line for negotiating (or not) the final Brexit arrangements. The CAA says it will recognise all EASA licences etc for 2 years from exit but
AFAIK the Commission has given no such assurances - and why would it? It will be a key EU bargaining tool.
Regardless of which side of the Brexit divide you stand on, I think we might all agree it's a mess.