Alright people, let me try this again. In no way did I say or do I think furloughs are a given at this point in time. However, IF this mess drags on, what I think is that we’d probably see a number around 700. After 9/11 10% were furloughed initially and then another 10% when the guppies were parked. We currently have just over 13000 pilots with 400 retirements this year. 700+400 is less than 10% of the current group.
Now it’s a very different place that UAL exists in and the industry as a whole and UAL’s balance sheet is light years healthier than it was 20 years ago, when they were bleeding $1 million a day. But even though we have no idea where we’ll be in a month let alone 12, no company will continue to pay an employee group to simply sit at home. And that is all I was saying.
As to how long UAL would envisage a number of pilots being surplus to requirement, before a furlough becomes necessary, it’s about 12 months. That’s what I’ve been told from the guys I fly with who’ve been here over 30 years. Any less time and the cost associated with displacements and the subsequent re-training, simply don’t make sense. However, as far as the above email is concerned, yes that’s what the company has told us regarding furloughs but if you’ve been here any length of time, you’ll know that they have in the past hired right up until they’ve furloughed. So I take that with a grain of salt.
So what will happen with express, couldn’t tell you. You and I will know when it happens. The number of 70 seaters is maxed out. Hence the CRJ550’s. Oil is at a low, which means the 50 seaters are more cost effective but UAL is cancelling flights. The first leg of my trip back to Oz next month, to IAH has already been cancelled so it’s already happening.
I’ve been in your shoes and furloughed to boot and it was sh!t sand which of biblical proportions. I wouldn’t wish it on anyone. Let’s all hope it does die out with the warm weather and the tin hat brigade can come out of their bunkers.
I will leave you all to the E3 discussion, while I teach my kid that Vegemite is God’s creation.
Last edited by Kenny; 9th Mar 2020 at 02:12.