Originally Posted by
plotplot
My guess would be quite a long time, given how long this would need to drag out for to make furloughs cost effective. Stole this excerpt from another forum that came from mgmt;
Since the Company announced the current reduction in flying due to the corona virus, we've received many questions regarding furloughs. Currently, the short-term reduction in flying is causing multiple categories to be overstaffed. The Company has many contractual tools available to mitigate short term overstaffing situations including additional monthly vacation awards, COLAs, surplus reduction lines, lower LPA (line production averages), vacancy cancellations, etc.
Does this mean the Company is planning a furlough? No, and the Company is being aggressive to prevent them.
For furloughs to occur, the Company must consider the high cost of the contract implications listed below and the amount of time it takes to displace and re-train pilots down through the system to eventually furlough from the bottom of the list. The same process applies when recalling- they must slowly bid and re-train all those pilots back up the ladder. This process is difficult by design and is an extremely expensive and cumbersome process that the Company does not undertake lightly. The Company would need to project that this overstaffing situation would last a significant period of time for a furlough to be seriously considered. Otherwise, it's cheaper and more efficient to carry the extra pilots than it is to go through the expense of furlough and recall.
In addition to the high cost of displacement, we have many items in our contract that discourage the Company from furloughing pilots.
Furloughs are surely a long way off given the high yearly rate of attrition as well. That said you could be right Kenny and i wouldn't discredit anything at this point
We can argue and speculate all day long but the fact is this is too new for anyone to have any idea how it's going to play out. All I care about is how this is going to affect my potential path moving forward with a regional, or whether it's best to let this play out first.
Kenny, would kind of effect do you think would furloughs at mainline have on the regionals, keeping in mind that XJT won't have any 70 seaters that you said were more significant in the scope clause?
The answer is no one really no one knows, but you can’t ignore the mandatory retirement numbers this decade.
There May be a slowdown in hiring for the corona virus speed bump, but with the mandatory retirement numbers you’re not going to see a lost decade like post 9/11. That’s even if flying shrinks significantly which is doubtful.
Keep in mind I’m also the eternal pessimist and I can’t really see doom and gloom in what’s happening given retirement numbers.