Originally Posted by
Climb150
The reduction in US domestic flying as of now is small. Most regionals still need bodies to cover even a reduced schedule.
United mainline is a bit more exposed to Asia than the other legacies. The cancellation of the class was low move not mimicked by the other two.
Expressjet has a lot of ex Trans States planes to crew. They wont be put off by something that will fade away once the northern hemisphere temperature rises (hopefully).
A bit overly optimistic, especially the temperature bit. This is, in all probability, not going to be over quickly. North America is not China and you can’t simply lock down and quarantine whole cities. Now that it’s here, it’ll spread like wildfire. Whether it kills in any large numbers is unlikely but the public are panicked.
United isn’t just “a bit more exposed”, it’s hugely exposed; 45% of revenue comes from intl traffic and loads are down 75% across the Pacific. We’ve just announced 700 “take a month off and get paid 50 hours” lines. Mostly 777 and 737. If this sh!t drags on, I’d wager that’s the initial number of furloughs and upcoming retirements won’t make much of a difference.
Also, remember the amount of airframes express can operate is dictated by the amount of main line airframes. UAL starts parking planes and it’ll all start rolling downhill.
Hope I’m wrong but after 20 years in this industry, reality tends to take precedence over optimism.