Everybody should be aware the results released by VA on 26 Feb 20 were for the period ended 31 Dec 19. Likewise the S&P Global Ratings Outlook Update report issued on 28 Feb 20 was based on information released by VA on 26 Feb 20. S&P then factor in what they believe has taken place since 01 Jan 20 and what they see in the future.
Since the release of the S&P Update the outlook has become bleaker due to concerns about Covid-19 and the impact on travel generally. The share price has collapsed a further 17.14% and what happens between now and 30 Jun 20 will determine the future of VA. S&P modelling up to 26 Feb 20 showed VA defaulting in 2024 unless their trajectory changes for the better. Should it worsen default could occur earlier. The S&P modelling suggested there could be just $311M available to cover estimated 'claims' of $2B in round figures.
Should market passenger numbers start to reduce this week and the VA market share fall even lower due to concerns by agents and the travelling public there are concerns about the viability of VA the outlook could change for the worse very quickly.
Last edited by B772; 7th Mar 2020 at 23:29.