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Old 1st Mar 2020, 19:03
  #13 (permalink)  
sms8
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: London
Posts: 88
Think most are more than aware of the risks and have made a decision that suits their own judgements and circumstances...especially since this thread is regarding future class AP445 not shall I go integrated or wait for a potential apocalypse... CV impact cannot be predicted and that is very much is a doomsday scenario for what is essentially a bad flu... starting training in late September as it seems is the likely time, your looking at least another 18months on, theres always a reason not to do XY and Z ... then life and circumstances get in the way and the opportunity passes you buy (I talk from experience) . Thereís always so many nay sayers...Iíve got what I consider my second chance and Iím going for it Iím aware of the risks thanks.

Originally Posted by portos8 View Post
The CV is likely to induce a strong recession, if not a depression depending on its severity. That makes today comparable to the same time in 2008, right before the global financial meltdown. Early 2008 everyone got hired, by the end of 2008 over 70 airlines worldwide had gone bankrupt.

Students that started the integrated training in early 2008 , having paid over 100k upfront, completed their CPL in 2009. It took till 2013 for the first jobs to appear that low hour pilots qualified for. By then the training completed in 2009 was useless, with the 100k investment lost.
Students that started the modular training in early 2008, having paid only for the PPL upfront, were able to stop their training after the PPL once it became clear that the market went belly up, continuing their day jobs (that they had never left in the first place), taking maximum time for their ATPL theory to be completed, and finishing their CPL/MEIR training at the first signs the market improved in 2013. Those guys did well.

If you are currently on the verge of parting with 100K+ for an integrated course, maybe it is wise to rethink your strategy. More than ever, spread your risk. There is currently too much uncertainty. Do not believe the glossy folders. During a recession, when dozens of airlines go bust and thousands of qualified, experienced pilots are on the hunt for a job, you will have zero chance as a 200 (or is it 150....) hour pilot. When companies are laying off their pilots during a recession they will not hire newbies, regardless of what great relationship they have with your flightschool.
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