Originally Posted by
SteinarN
The number of accidents will go up by 1 as you say. But the number of flights will not increase that much as the Max was flying for only eleven weeks in 2019.
But you are right, the accident rate can not double, it must be less than a doubling, so maybe around 7 or 8 per million flights. Almost the same as the total hull loss bar for the "Aircraft no longer in service" and the 707/727.
The Boeing StatSum shows just over 200,000 Max flights as of the end of 2018 (1 million divided by 4.90). At the time of the grounding, FR24 estimated that there were 8,600 departures per week being flown by the Max - so around 95,000 for the period Jan-Mar 2019.
So roughly 6.7 hull losses per million departures - not that that tells us anything we didn't know already.