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Old 27th Feb 2020, 21:31
  #70 (permalink)  
racedo
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Permanent Newbie
Posts: 50
Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 View Post
Let us suppose, just hypothetically, that Covid-19 really is as bad as professors of medicine are saying. 60% of population in a high income country is infected and 1% die - figures I've seen from a well respected figure. Of course you may have a different opinion on what numbers should look like, but this puts us into 1918 Spanish flu comparable territory
That is up to 500,000 dead..................... or more than total WW2 casualties.

Point will be trhat it would not be even spread around country, some towns could lose 40% of population where some lose a handful. Then there is the recovery of those infected, don't over rule survivors guilt that will be in the mine.

Under such a scenario while large numbers of people are sick, would society want a complete shutdown of commercial aviation ? Wuhan airport closed, but Shanghai-Pudong remains open albeit running at about 20% of normal traffic levels
If closed down you may reduce population loss from 500,000 to 100,000, infection rate from 60% to 20%. Would you suggest not doing it ?
Of course some states may get a hold of it and release it in a city of their enemies to destroy.

Potentially death rate could be very high as who would make and distributes food ? Also likely martial law in UK would need to be declared. Hey I point worst case scenario but imagine you have food stocked up, neighbours don't and are hungry.
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