The fact of the matter is, nobody knows. On one hand CV could blow over like the rest. On the other hand, it might not, and could raise hell for all involved. But then CV could fizzle out, and something else rears it’s ugly head which threatens EU aviation. We just don’t know.
Lufthansa and Finnair are already taking action, and plenty of the Far Eastern airlines are doing the same. (Although you could argue that things like this are the perfect excuse to trim the fat, cut costs, and get more for less out of their employees).
Realistically you’ll have finished your training and be looking for a job in around 2 years. The world could be a complete different ball game by then. For better or for worse. We simply don’t know.
My logic is that in 2 years all this CV stuff will have certainly blown over. If it gets (dramatically) worse as we speak, then the slowing down of airlines would be a threat to people currently at the end of their training, or looking for their first job. But, nobody here is a fortune teller. We just don’t know.
However, we are due for a recession, and a major drop in pilot recruitment. We had one after the Gulf War in the early 90s, after 9/11 in 2001, and the 2008/09 Credit Crunch. The roughly 10-year cycle means we should be due for another one any time soon. I hope this isn’t the case, but again, we just don’t know what will happen.
I would never tell anyone to not start their training, as life’s too short for that. But, definitely have a back up plan. A job you can go to and pay your way whilst trying to find an airline job. I would never advise anyone to go straight from school onto an integrated course, with no skills or qualifications to fall back on should flying fail. Definitely not worth remortgaging your parents’ house over.
It’s all a risk. But such is life. If you finish your training at a time similar to 2017/18, when the airlines’ doors were wide open, then you’d be laughing. However, if times are like 2008/2009, then you could be in for a 5-year long wait until something pops up.
You need a fortune teller, not a forum 😀.