I am trying to be a realist. I only read recognised experts in the field, and articles in respected journals and periodicals. I would rather be prepared to the extent that I am able this time than rely on unsound optimism.
I shouldn’t have written “nine or ten in every planeload” because of course not every traveller will be infected, or get a cold, or get the flu. But this virus IS more contagious than either of those things, and of course does kill approx 3% of its victims.
It may be that worldwide for a year or two the death rate from all causes bumps up a bit from this virus and that eventually people will adapt to this new reality. People are hardwired to be more afraid of contagion than other things, the same way they are more afraid of sharks than lightning. Perception, like in most things, may be the key to our industry's future.