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Old 21st Feb 2020, 20:35
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racedo
 
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Originally Posted by pee
Most recent estimation: Coronavirus outbreak to cost airlines almost $30bn. To my understanding it is based on an assumption that the viral germ will be prevented from spreading across Europe or the US. Too optimistic perhaps?
Bit too late as it is already here.

Question now is containment.

There are 2 scenarios.

A national self isolation of everybody when / if it does take hold. It will work BUT it will mean everybody goes into that mode and hope it will burn out, people develop immunity. Problem is that there is not enough food / resources to allow that happen. A 30 day containment potentially but a 180 day economic loss.

Second scenario is let it take hold and try and contain but expect to lose 2 % of the population in worst case scenario.

I am painting a black picture but losing 2 % of population doesn't sound drastic until you realise in some areas it could be 20% and in other areas 0.0001%. Everybody hopes to be in the survivors but likely would be under martial law for stability for a while

OTOH it may blow over as others have done in decades past.

OTOH it is a flu like virus and in Uk in 2014/15 30,000 died in a bad year.
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