Blue lines like that don’t happen naturally.
The case definition has been changed twice in a week. China can change definitions and (with 99% of the global cases) can unilaterally control the graphs produced. Meanwhile, things in real life continue to follow a natural course.
Infections stop spreading when
i) the pathogen changes,
ii) when we develop a treatment to overcome it,
iii) quarantine such that people stop mixing so it can't spread,
iv) or (when all else fails) it stops running into vulnerable people as the proportion of infected & recovered & immune people increases sufficiently to disrupt ongoing spread. When each person infects less than 1 new person (R falls below 1), the total numbers start to decline. With a current R greater than 2, this would require the proportion of immune people to be greater than 50%. 60% is an estimate based on what we currently believe R to be. It could be higher than 60%.
Absent the first 3, we appear to be left with number iv).
Neil Ferguson suggests 60% global population infected, with a point estimate of a 1% mortality (with a factor of 4 error either way - i.e. fatality most likely between 0.25% and 4%).
7 billion x 60% x 1% = 42 million - with the same error factor of 4 either way.
A UK doctor was suggesting that in the UK this would be equivalent to all UK military and civilian deaths in WW2 - but compressed into 12-18 months.
https://blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthma...8/05/1918-flu/
Unusual flu-like activity was first identified in U.S. military personnel during the spring of 1918. Flu spread rapidly in military barracks where men shared close quarters. The second wave occurred during the fall of 1918 and was the most severe. A third wave of illness occurred during the winter and spring of 1919.
Note they are talking about seasons and years. The "1918 'flu" wasn't something that happened for a few weeks or a couple of months in 1918.
With COVID 19, we are looking at a few weeks. Very early days. Yes it started in Nov & Dec 19. But it really only got going 4 weeks ago (4 weeks ago Wuhan was yet to be quarantined).
In the first few weeks of the spring of 1918, I guess things didn't look that bad either.
This likely has a long time to run.
Japan and Korea have both been very very concerning over the past few days
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/0...navirus-cases/