Originally Posted by
FlareArmed2
Update for 10 Feb. Total number of cases:
"Cases" are number of cases reported in mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from John Hopkins University.
Y-axis is plotted as a logarithm, so straight lines on graph show the exponential rate.
Coloured lines on chart are lines of best fit to mainland China data showing the daily increase in number of cases.
The rate of increase each day:
"Daily change" for mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from John Hopkins University.
Coloured lines on chart are linear lines of best fit.
Lines extending beyond data points are extrapolated and therefore not data-based but are speculative.
The rate of increase each day is trending downwards which is good.
The reduction in daily increase is significant.
Will we get to zero growth on or about 12 Feb? I've been doing these graphs for a while now and the extrapolation on the daily change graph has consistently crossed the zero line on 12 Feb (graph on
8 Feb,
7 Feb,
6 Feb,
3 Feb). We could be surprised by a new surge in numbers but I remain optimistic that growth will reach zero sometime in February, and hopefully soon.
You are referring to the
differential, which is the rate of change of the numbers of cases, not the additional numbers of cases. Once this goes into a negative territory, the case numbers will still continue to increase, the increase will just not be exponential or accelerating, and that is definitely good news, it indicates that some form of mitigation is occurring, which may be isolation, weather change, infection control discipline, under reporting of numbers, but the "rate" of change is altering in a desirable direction. To get the case numbers to peak, the additional cases on a daily basis have to drop to zero, which is well off in the future. So far, the virus has been playing fair, it hasn't altered it's behaviour greatly, so if the collective knowledge and skills of the medical fraternity come up with effective protocols, and the great majority of us the unwashed masses adhere to those protocols, then this can be curtailed.
We appear to be surprised as always that the medical system ends up being involved in the transmission of these viruses; they are a natural focus for people with infection, and the understanding that the patient has a new form of infection takes a finite time to ascertain. In the absence of information, then infections arise.