PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - BA cancel all flights to and from China due to Coronavirus
Old 6th Feb 2020, 04:46
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OldnGrounded
 
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Originally Posted by Australopithecus
After reading an article today regarding the relative immunity of the young to coronaviruses I realise that whatever CFR is calculated will reflect the total case load, but fatalities will be skewed to the older, more male end of the pool. Older males thus will suffer a CFR quite a bit higher than the raw numbers suggest.
It's not really a matter of immunity. It's unlikely that any group of humans has significant immunity to a novel virus, unless it is very similar to one that has previously infected a population and resulted in a persistent capacity to develop an effective antibody response. And viruses mutate incredibly rapidly, so that isn't something that would be expected in this case. It is certainly true, though, that some cohorts typically suffer more from diseases like this than others. Older people often make up one of the more-susceptible cohorts (and often have preexisting conditions that make any systemic illness more dangerous). That seems to be the case here, and, for whatever as-yet unclear reason, most deaths to date are in males. If these trends continue, Australopithecus' expectation may well turn out to be correct.
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