Originally Posted by
EDLB
Don’t think it makes much sense to speculate now on an exact CFR number. It will depend on the quality of care. Ebola CFR is around 18% in a modern up to date hospital environment but 67% in the woods. We will learn over time of more effective treatment of nCoV2019. But case numbers and CFR is currently high enough, that it complete overwhelms the capabilities of a modern city. We would currently be able to deal with a few additional 1000 patients in a typical 50 million+ country, but over 10k with tight isolation requirements not so much.
As of yesterday's World Health Organization situation report, there were 20,630 confirmed cases, worldwide, and 425 deaths. That's a CFR of 2% and that number has been pretty stable for several days. Since a majority of cases don't require hospitalization and an unknown but likely fairly large percentage are either asymptomatic or result in only mild symptoms, that 20,630 number is probably a significant undercount, which would mean the actual case fatality rate is less than 2%.
That said, EDLB is right: (a) CFR will probably vary based upon the promptness and quality of supportive care; and (b) any nation on this planet that experiences an outbreak on the scale Wuhan is facing will have its healthcare facilities and system massively overwhelmed.