PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - BA cancel all flights to and from China due to Coronavirus
Old 2nd Feb 2020, 15:52
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OldnGrounded
 
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Of course there are ongoing projects aimed at developing vaccines, and of course they are based upon understanding the genome of the virus. That does not mean that anyone knows the "required makeup" of a vaccine, only that there is data available to point researchers in the right direction.

I don't think my post implied that a vaccine would be ready tomorrow, merely that it is in production, albeit very early stages.
No vaccine is "in production." No vaccine will be "in production" until one is formulated and tested for safety and efficacy, first in cell culture, then in animals and finally in humans.

This article provides solid and sensible information on the issue and is easy to understand:

How Long Will it Take to Develop a Vaccine for Coronavirus?

Note that one company asserts that it will have a vaccine ready for testing in humans within a month. That's a pretty bold claim (you can be pretty certain that it is aimed at investors at least as much as any other audience) and, even if it turns out to be accurate, the testing referred to is a phase one trial. Here, from the US National Institutes of Health, is a quick overview of the phases of clinical trials:

Clinical trials are conducted in a series of steps called “phases.” Each phase has a different purpose and helps researchers answer different questions.
  • Phase I trials: Researchers test a drug or treatment in a small group of people (20–80) for the first time. The purpose is to study the drug or treatment to learn about safety and identify side effects.
  • Phase II trials: The new drug or treatment is given to a larger group of people (100–300) to determine its effectiveness and to further study its safety.
  • Phase III trials: The new drug or treatment is given to large groups of people (1,000–3,000) to confirm its effectiveness, monitor side effects, compare it with standard or similar treatments, and collect information that will allow the new drug or treatment to be used safely.
  • Phase IV trials: After a drug is approved by the FDA and made available to the public, researchers track its safety in the general population, seeking more information about a drug or treatment’s benefits, and optimal use.
Edit: A study from Germany that's just making the rounds appears to contradict the WHO observation, from yesterday, that transmission from asymptomatic carriers may be rare.

Letter to the New England Journal:

Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany

CNN story with comments by Anthony Fauci (who is definitely the real deal in epidemiology):

'There's no doubt': Top US infectious disease doctor says Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms


Last edited by OldnGrounded; 2nd Feb 2020 at 17:30.
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