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Old 1st Feb 2020, 08:43
  #140 (permalink)  
anxiao
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: The Twain
Posts: 128
The epidemiological statistics that have been published make interesting reading. Using a model of R0 = 2.0 to 2.5 (which means that each infected person infects 2 to 2.5 people) the graph is almost identical with the Wuhan virus progression since 16th January. This is an increase in cases of 53% per day. For example the modelled expectation of infections for 29/01 was 10,555, the expected for 01/02 was 37,728. If you take the lag in reporting the cases as being a couple of days, that seems to tie in with actual cases.

The projection for 08/02 is 737,005, but by then the initial reporting of early cases will be complete, and the R0 figures should decrease, so the actual cases should then start to drop below the 53% line. That is when the statistics guys really get to work in plotting the peak and slope of the graph, and hence the expected date of the decline of the number of reported cases. Epidemics become mathematics at the scale of population that we are dealing with here.


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