Early cases yes, the more recent data suggests a 29%/day increase, despite being lumpy and being selected for severity.
I read that report too, Sunny,
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...2001316?query=
and the article on STAT which urges caution about the early math since the data is so suspect for a lot of innocent reasons*
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/30/...irus-outbreak/
* innocent reasons include complete ignorance of the rate of inconsequential infection- the mild cases which never seek medical attention, the few misdiagnosed and, less innocent, the undereporting early, and the lack of test kits lately.
As the numbers swell we will get a handle on rates of mortality. The virus may end up mutating in one direction or another in such a large petri dish as China. RNA viruses mutate spontaneously due to the lack of proofreading that a DNA virus has to do to reproduce. Mutations are a crap shoot. A mutation in the benign direction may take the heat out of pockets of this particular bushfire.
As I see it there are four broad possibilities when you draw a matrix of R0 and CFR with the caveat of completely uncertain data sets.
As such I am keeping my arithmetic to myself for awhile, but three out of four scenarios look look dire. Its hardly rocket science, and there are lots of unknowns. And Rumsfeldian unknowns too.
I just wish the government was as pessimistic as I am
That said, there are some probable mitigators to the infection rate, like fear, enhanced hygiene, self-isolation and mobility bans.
Anyway, so far this contagion looks just like the start of all the nightmare scenarios we have been warned about.
here’s a recent warning about bat coronaviruses and China from early last year:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6466186/