Originally Posted by
Airbubba
The U.S. evacuation flight from Wuhan is airborne with a Connie B-744.
Connies planes may be more than a match for 2019nCoV....
The German and Japanese human to human transmission outside of PRC should trigger a major change in the WHO position on the outbreak.
About time.
On the related closed thread, comment was made on the fact that the virus had killed at least one health worker. It suggested that health workers would be healthy subjects. Docs and nurses seem to run the gamut of condition that most of the rest of us unwashed do, wouldn't necessarily conclude that without supporting evidence. Medical teams should be more aware of the procedures for infection control, but the early video indicated the wrong types of masks being used, without eye or face protection, and in some cases incorrect mask types being worn incorrectly. To become a statistic when working in close proximity to infectious substances and more importantly all the untrained and unwitting potential carriers of the virus makes it a full time demand to be correct in procedure, which is a tall ask anywhere. Spread of virus within medical staff is historically common and is practically darn hard to avoid.
To date, the fatalities have been almost exclusively in PRC, if not totally. The stats on the external rate will become apparent once enough time has passed, but the rate of case confirmation in PRC is running at an average of 148% per day, roughly doubling every 2 days. The daily statistics show a fair amount of variation, from 117% to 218%, but a regression or average looks about the same, 1.5x daily. The external cases are running, 148% average per day since a report of 4 cases overseas. Out of all of those, there are 2 external transmissions where the person contracting the virus has not been in Wuhan.
Mortality rates are around 1.8% as of this morning, of all confirmed cases, and as above, all of those have been in Wuhan so far. In 10-14 days we will have enough info to determine whether care within PRC is a factor in the outcome. If a differential mortality rate remains, then that should give clues as to how best to adjust care in PRC to lower mortality rate. If the mortality rates result in similar trends, then that will at least provide information on who is most at risk so intervention effort can be best employed. In the meantime, the stats appear to be very quiet in Russia and in the Philippines. Suspect that all is not as quiet as indicated in the stats there.
Surgical masks have limited time effectiveness, and what effectiveness there is is in limiting transmission from the wearer to others. N95 masks with good seals have modest effectiveness to stop particulates getting to the nose and mouth. Eye protection is needed to stop a vector via that path. Once the wearer is outside of the area where airborne contamination is expected, then contamination deposits on surfaces that are then touched and transferred by contact of the hand to the face is a major problem; entering a lift or opening a door is inviting a transfer if gloves and sterile procedures to avoid transfer to the face is not employed. That comes down to not touching your own face with your own hands, which the mask of any sort will assist with. Fidgeting with the mask is inviting transfer... This is not rocket science, but in our own operations, we have had to review and adjust protocols to avoid the risks that we have interfacing with those involved in the care of such patients.
Good news is that the rate of transmission (er, case confirmation) will not remain at 148% per day... the bad news is that it may increase or decrease. Fortunately, It is most likely to decrease, as at the current rate, by the end of February, the total cases would have grown to over a Billion, (with a B), and that would be a fairly noticeable effect on activity rates, so isolation is likely to occur naturally, which will reduce that rate. Due to the latency problem arising from the possibility that this virus is contagious while in a asymptomatic state, there is already a much larger number of people with the virus than would have been the case with SARS and MERS. Assuming that all infections lead to confirmation in due course, then there is around 1 Million vectors happily floating around in PRC and in the planes already that are asymptomatic. The unknown is how many people can be asymptomatic and still spread the virus while never becoming a confirmed case, and how many other cases are just not reported as they have been discounted as being normal illness and deaths (Phillipines, Russia etc). Suspect that the real case is around 4 times higher than that, so about 4 Million little vectors running around today. That suggests Elvis has left the building, and all up this is a tail chase of mitigation more than prevention.
This virus is going to run its course, and hopefully medical care will cope with the patient load which will certainly increase, and will be able to come up with appropriate therapies within existing resources to moderate fatalities. The clue may well be the difference in outcome between PRC and external today. If not, then by the end of February, we need about 30 Million new plots for burials.
The rates are going to change, and hopefully all will moderate, that is transmission control reducing new confirmed cases, and mortality rate from confirmed cases. They can move in either direction, but the efforts are being made to lower them all. The planet has a lot of people on it, and the annual mortality rate, without tiffs between nations is in the 3% range with new births making up for that. An increase in mortality rates for various parts of the population of 1.8% is pretty rough on that part of the population, but wont ultimately end up being apocalyptic. It may ruin the individuals day, but it will bw a blip in the overall growth rate, we delay messing up the planet by about 6 months. For the elderly, infirm, and young there is an incentive to take precautions, it's their lives that are most likely at stake at present. The elderly can mainly take responsibility for their own cases, the young increase the burden on the parents, and that is a powerful incentive to get it right.