PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Tracking of passenger's previous flights re. 2019-nCoV
Old 28th Jan 2020, 15:43
  #13 (permalink)  
Sriajuda
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Germany
Age: 54
Posts: 20
@Paul852 Data on the current outbreak is both sparse and questionable, considering the source.

The general difference between outbreaks of a previously unknown virus and other known ones (even if mutated) is very well understood in epidemiology.
As to the lethality of the new virus: We simply don't know enough. A new strain is bound to wipe out the infirm and old first, and quickly. But what about the healthy population? Again, we don't know yet. However, going from the Chinese official figures, it appears that the ratio between death and healed are about 2:1, at best 1: 1. That does not forebode well.

But at this point in time, it is quite speculative. However, even if mortality is low, the unprecedented infectiousness (spread) of the virus alone makes it extremely dangerous. The new virus (just going by Chinese official numbers) has infected more people in 10 days than SARS in 6 months.

And very renowned institutes in Hong Kong, the UK, Canada, Australia and elsewhere estimate that the real numbers are likely 10 times as high as the officially reported ones. And you still think this is under control?

And why, for god's sake, don't we implement strict travel restrictions? Some countries have. North Korea, Mongolia, Hong Kong and some others. (Often hidden behind "We don't issue visas anymore)".

Even if (my) fears are exaggerated, is it not better to err on the safe side?

G.
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