The demise of Flybe would be an enormous blow to SOU, but I think it would recover relatively quickly. Many of the routes are very well used, with one or two being amongst Flybe’s most profitable. The problem Flybe has is debt, and when any business of any type gets into this situation, it is always trying to play ‘catch-up’ with its finances, and this can be a loosing battle. I agree that the Sun routes, whilst busy and well used, probably had relatively low yields, with little or no operating profit when set against the often reported high lease costs of the EMB 190s. Many of the leisure routes to France were probably very marginal too.
There has however been a steady and continuing need for the core UK/Ireland/Channel Island routes, together with destinations such as Amsterdam and Paris.
In in the event of a Flybe collapse, I can easily see other operators taking over some these routes, albeit at a more realistic slightly reduced frequency on some of them, but still timed to appeal to business users who often require an out and back in a day schedule.
I can easily see Aer Lingus Regional stepping in to offer perhaps twice daily to Dublin and daily to Belfast. Loganair would be prime contenders to operate routes to and from Glasgow/Edinburgh and perhaps reintroduce Aberdeen. Eastern could perhaps step in with perhaps Newcastle. Not sure about MAN, but as it’s one of the busiest routes from SOU, I’m pretty sure an operator would step in and be able to turn a profit on this popular route.
I do wonder about the return of the ‘sun routes’. I can’t see enough business to allow an operator such as EasyJet or Jet2 to open a base, and operating flights on W patterns from other bases can be quite complicated. The restriction on opening hours is always going to be a disadvantage in attracting a low cost carrier, even if the runway extension gets the go ahead.
The best solution I feel for these routes would be to try and attract BA Cityflyer to operate a limited range of leisure routes as they have done from a few other airports. Ferrying aircraft in from LCY at the weekend is but a short hop, and a very affluent market is available in the Hampshire/West Berks/South Wilts area. It would also provide a different product proposition (more upmarket) compared to Bournemouth thus it would avoid a ‘head to head’ battle with the low cost operators at Bournemouth - similar destinations but a different product.
I personally think SOU will overcome the difficult challenges that would be posed by losing Flybe, but would bounce back over a period of 18 months or so with passenger numbers settling at a more stable but still profitable 1.5M per annum.