Originally Posted by
Sunfish
Austral:
What we need to know is rho - the transmission ratio and the cfr - case fatality rate. The cfr may be 3% now which is bad enough, but consider that is with best medical care. If this thing infects millions then medical facilities are overwhelmed. We then have what’s called a “slate wiper” no need to worry about population pressure on resources for a long time.
It looks like the R0 is 2 +/- 0.4 based on estimates produced yesterday. Mortality currently running delayed to cases, but around 4% given good care. Age >50 is a factor, as are any pre-existing pulmonary conditions. The R0 value is a worry, and seems to borne out by the rapidly increasing case numbers.
On a bright note those fine folks at the University of Queensland think they have a novel protein clamp scheme which might allow producing a vaccine within six months.