agread, As information comes out, it changes the most probable cause. At first there was just ADSB which is disturbing and so far
only a few have commented on in flight stresses. In this accident, the A-DSB record shows
what appears to be severe turbulence stresses followed by what appears to be a break up or a crash.
Then arrived vague hearsay but apparently considered reliable witness information came out that gave
a picture that the C130 followed another aircraft thru a valley in which it
ended up being seen by other witnesses flying very low level.
The higher the water drop height above ground
the less effective the drop becomes.
With four turbine engines, plenty of fuel, its improbable that this accident was a forced landing gone bad.
Now you threw in "what about somebody who knows something".
In this case, the destruction photographed, shows a nasty rate of descent and high forward speed,
its improbable that they were setting up for a forced landing.