Please forgive my ignorance and lack of experience. I'm a glider pilot with interest in aviation.
It's possible N134GC was attempting an emergency landing in inhospitable terrain with very poor visibility.
Some observations:
Using flightaware.com/live/flight/N134CG/history/20200123/0115Z/YSRI/YSRI/tracklog
And smh.com.au/national/nsw/not-much-intact-cockpit-recorder-key-to-c-130-crash-investigation-20200124-p53ujr.html
And some local knowledge.
I'm going to assume FlightAware is accurate subject to comments by
physicus. Only one AusATC radar indicates a SW trajectory:
Thu 13:08:58 -35.9962
149.3699 205° 154 285 1,615
This shows on the FlightAware map as a turn to the south. (flightaware.com/live/flight/N134CG)
Only 15 seconds before the trajectory was NNW:
Thu 13:08:43 -35.9837
149.3775 ↑ 343° 132 245 1,615
At the time of the crash (1:04 pm) the wind was close to 25 knots (gusting 39 knots) from the NW in nearby Cooma Airport
bom.gov.au/products/IDN60801/IDN60801.94921.shtml
According to police the "debris from the plane was strewn across more than a kilometre" (SMH above), consistent with an attempted emergency landing. Visibility was about 1 km. The area near Peak View is the only farming land in an area surrounded by forest. The terrain is rough and at a C-130 landing speed of 100 knots could easily cause structural failure on landing. The burn marks appear 200 metres short of the final resting site in a copse of trees unlikely to have been visible on an approach through the smoke.
In the last 2 minutes of flight record N134CG descended from about 2000 metres to 1600 metres and slowed from 243 knots to 132 knots and changed course from 105° to 343° roughly into the wind. The terrain height at Peak View is about 1000 metres. This seems like a preparation for landing at 100 knots. The maximum descent rate of -293 (units unclear ft/min?) was slower than at other times during the flight.
The closest alternative was a gilder field at Bunyan 25 km away with a 1200 metre grass strip YBUY.
The fire retardant was completely discharged, some of it probably at the Adaminaby fire complex about 45-50 minutes into the flight when the airspeed was 200-225 knots and altitude 2000 m, similar to the terrain height in the Adaminably area. From other reports N134GC was on its way to a 2nd drop zone when the leading spoter aircraft noticed it was missing. Also from other reading water bombers fly well above their stall speed when attacking fires due to the severe turbulence encountered. Slowing to 132 knots is not consistent with water bombing. There were no fires, particularly at emergency level, near Peak View at the time of the crash. There were emergency level fires on the coast some 100 km further east.
rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me
If the FlightAware data is accurate, and given the other factors above, may I suggest an emergency landing of an intact aircraft in severe circumstances is a possibility.
Aerial footage of the crash site is here:
abc.net.au/news/2020-01-24/us-canada-fire-death-tanker-crash-site-bushfires-hercules/11897624
(I cannot post links so add the appropriate prescripts)
The footage is clearly taken late in the afternoon in the Southern Hemisphere summer. The sun sets locally at about 245 degrees, so late in the afternoon the shadows from the trees, which are clearly visible, will be approximately from west to east, or maybe WNW to ESE. The impact scar, of which about 200 m is visible, runs slightly to the north of this, perhaps WNW to NW.
It appears the heading of N134GC was approximately WNW to NW at the time of impact, which was in to the strong prevailing wind. This is consistent with an attempted emergency landing.
A possibility is that N134GC lost power on all 4 engines and could not make an alternate (the nest glide ratio is about 17 on a C-130) and was forced to land in the only unforested land available, which was rough undulating terrain. Local glider pilots consider the area offers few outlanding options.
FWIW
My deep sympathies to the family, friends and colleagues of the crew.