PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - How much must the airlines be praying for this?
Old 23rd Jan 2020, 04:28
  #10 (permalink)  
Sunfish
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: moon
Posts: 3,564
Received 89 Likes on 32 Posts
Austral:
Five Hundred confirmed cases, 1300 estimated. 17 dead, 3.4% mortality rate. Health care workers are now infected, proving human to human transmission. Now wouldn't be a good time to panic. The time for that was last week.

What we need to know is rho - the transmission ratio and the cfr - case fatality rate. The cfr may be 3% now which is bad enough, but consider that is with best medical care. If this thing infects millions then medical facilities are overwhelmed. We then have what’s called a “slate wiper” no need to worry about population pressure on resources for a long time.
Sunfish is offline