Oct 26th 2019
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But supporters of Open Skies insist that Russia’s supposed advantage from the treaty has been overstated. “If they really wanted, Russia could basically collect nearly all they get from Open Skies flights via their national technical means, be it overhead or covert collection on the ground,” says Thomas Moore, an expert who formerly served with the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.
Moreover, the flights ensure that NATO and Russian officers meet routinely, building familiarity and trust when both are in short supply. “Not only do Western countries collect imagery from their overflight, they also get a feel for the blood pressure in the Russian air force,” notes Steffan Watkins, an analyst who studies the treaty.
But the treaty’s most compelling rationale is that most of America’s allies will never be able to afford multi-billion-dollar spy satellites in the first place. For a country like Ukraine, Open Skies flights might provide the only chance to peer at Russian troop movements across the border. As Russia conducts larger snap exercises, often without proper notification, such monitoring has grown in importance. Between 2002 and 2016 American observers flew over Russia 196 times, with only 71 Russian flights over America.
Concern is mounting about America’s possible withdrawal from the treaty. George Shultz, a former secretary of state, William Perry, a former secretary of defence, and Sam Nunn, a former Democratic senator, wrote on October 20th that pulling out would be a “grave mistake”. The Pentagon and State Department are similarly worried and Robert O’Brien, Mr Bolton’s successor, is said to be slow-walking the order. America’s allies have been working the phones, urging Mr Trump to reconsider. However much the president may dislike the prospect of a Russian jet humming a few thousand feet above Washington, his allies will be telling him they love the idea of their own buzzing over Moscow"