Originally Posted by
West Coast
Sufficient data in the public realm to accurately make that prediction?
The lack of an aircraft carrier when apparently they were always needed is indeed a matter of public record.
To have only four submarines over a thirty year period is running dangerously close to failure. One undergoing maintenance, one 'working up' a new crew, a third en route to a patrol area, leaves just one available for use. I don't believe we can be sure that single submarine is always going to be available as the fleet ages. Absolutely the precise condition of the fleet should not be a matter of public knowledge. And can we be quite certain that a base in Scotland will always be available through the lifetime of their replacement - to 2060?
Uncertainty is important though. It would be OK Corbyn saying he would never use these missiles if he had confined his thoughts to the confidential letters to commanders. I am by no means a fan of his. OTOH to set out in advance a promise to use these weapons under specified circumstances would be crazy, though it does not stop interviewers trying to get him to do just that.