1.42 Dr Jonathan Aleck, Executive Manager of Legal and Regulatory Affairs at CASA, laid out the objective of CASA's approach to this issue:
Quote:
Our objective here is not to specifically address what caused those two accidents; it's to address what kinds of things can cause incidents and accidents of this kind. We're being prospective. If we were to wait for sufficiently robust data to support an evidence based decision for every individual decision we took in this space, we would have to wait for a dozen or more accidents to occur.]
If he really said that, then this is lunacy! The entire body of statistics including probability exists to stamp out this rubbish.
To put that another way, unless you have detailed knowledge of the population, you cannot make such sweeping statements. You don’t know if your apparent “cluster” of events is purely coincidental and that is even assuming there is a common cause, without knowing the baseline accident rate and the standard deviation.
Given what is called “infant mortality” in maintenance, CASAs new rules on Angel Flight may even increase the accident rate.