I'm curious why you think that Qantas should have ordered more aircraft by now. Do you think that there are aircraft, currently in service, that Qantas should already have replaced (other than the 747-400s and ERs, which are on the way out)? Or, do you believe that Qantas will be unable to secure delivery slots to replace part of their fleet before it becomes uncompetitive - and if so, which part?
The reason I'm asking is because Qantas is highly profitable domestically, indicating that its narrowbody fleet is competitive with VA. And, although some of the fleet is aging, none of it is plainly at or approaching retirement age yet. Similarly, QFi is doing better than most of its regional competitors and, other than the 747s, none of its fleet obviously needs to be retired yet. So, unless I'm missing something, the main questions are whether QF:
- should have begun replacing parts of its fleet several years before the end of its commercial life (for a Western, full service carrier), and taken any depreciation charges as a result, or
- is likely to be unable to secure delivery slots to begin replacing its regional, 737 and A330 fleets in the next few years - given that it has orders for A320neos and 787s, and the A220 and E2 orderbooks are pretty thin, that doesn't seem likely.