Originally Posted by
Mr A Tis
I think people are getting far too excited. There was over capacity, too many holidays on very thin weak margins, at a time of reduced demand - Brexit, weakening pound etc. Why would anyone take risks ? Far better to increase yields and consolidate. Jet2 are the best at what they do, there is no need for them to do anything other than continue their modest growth. Replacing older frames when the opportunity arises, leasing in peak time capacity without the risks. I expect anything not Boeing will be leased in. When the MAX gets back into service, there will be a glut of used 738s on the market- I think J2 will just wait.
You're not wrong. However, to not replace some (that's the keyword here, not all) of the capacity that has been lost would be a potential opportunity missed and I don't think anybody was calling for Jet2 to precisely match lost capacity. How that's achieved is open for debate.
The remaining competitors also need to be careful not to hike up prices too much as that's got the potential to significantly weaken demand. It's about getting the balance right between profitability, meeting demand and anticipating potential economic headwinds that could affect either/both of these. The strength of GBP is another factor.
As for the MAX, even if a fix was found tomorrow the regulators worldwide will take their time before approving them safe to fly and that will affect which airlines can fly them again and where they can fly them to. It would take several weeks/months for all of them to fly again, especially the ones stored since March that would probably need more than the mods to make them airworthy again, especially the longer they're stored. I imagine there will be some training/re-training required given the length of time that's passed. It must be getting to the point now for MAX operators where for 2020 they have to make a call whether to build them into their fleet plans or not.