From detailed analysis I have carried out to advise investors in DY, I would say that Plastic787’s analysis is absolutely spot on.
Last year the airline made NOK 1.3bn during Q3, which was swallowed up halfway through Q4. Since then they have issued more shares, sold off assets and effectively defaulted on a huge loan, putting up their LGW slots as security in return for an extension. I am willing to bet the bondholders had no choice.
Despite their proclamations about turning the company around and morphing dramatically from growth to profitability, Q1 and Q2 seat costs are around 20% higher than 2018.
Summer 2019 passengers and revenues have been broadly flat in July and August and so unless there has been a dramatic reduction in the seat cost trend it is likely Q3 will not make anywhere near the profit of Q3 2018.
If this comes to pass (we should find out next week), it will be a very tough Winter. I hope I am wrong but I don’t see a rosy future for this airline, just based on figures and trends I have analysed recently,