Originally Posted by
nighthawk117
I think there may well be an opportunity out there for a new carrier... but only if you can get the name Thomas Cook.
The name alone is worth a fair bit of money, and commands a fair bit of respect and loyalty. Relaunching under the Thomas Cook brand will give any new carrier a good deal of credibility, and would be a good marketing boost.
Failed brand name has zero credibility. Would you fly a new PanAm or drive a new Rover ?
Package holidays are still quite popular - Jet2 is doing rather well, and as someone else has said, easyjet are looking to relaunch a package holiday offering too. A newly launched carrier following a similar model to Jet2 may well be successful. There's certainly plenty of spare capacity now, if a new carrier can get in quick before Easyjet/Jet/Ryanair/Virgin expand to fill the gap, then there may well be an opportunity here.
TC lost billions and somehow a new start up could fill the gap ? Doubt it for simple reason they would need £100 plus million up front for a start for a business that struggles to make money on consumers. Hotels abroad would need paying upfront for bookings.
There may also be a demand for a separate retail business too - it's said that 65% of bookings for TCX came online - so that means there were still quite a large number of bookings through the stores. Not everyone is tech savvy, or even airline savvy. There's still demand to sit down with an advisor and talk through the options. Taking on some of the more profitable stores may well be a viable business too.
The figure of circa £4-500 k cost of a single store means you have to sell a lot of holidays just to cover the store costs.
1/3 of your customers are using stores and this has figure has been decreasing year after year but you figure people will still do it. Every retail model out there is doing the exact opposite because of the cost. Going back to the £500k store cost and figure was TC made circa £200 out of a £4000 holiday. Need to sell a lot of holidays instore.
The instore model is dead. When overwhelming majority of the 35% will have internet access then it is book online or by phone.
There maybe 1% of customers max who cannot book online. Not really sustainable to keep shops open for those.
If a good deal can be struck on the aircraft, and the name can be acquired - then I think it may well be worth a shot. Certainly a better investment opportunity than a resurgent WOW air.. and that seems to be happening!
Put the money up then. Over capacity in the market has been got rid of. A newbie would need couple of hundred million behind it for a model that has marginal profitability and subject to high level of international risk.