It’s not a lottery.
Statistics are not not an accurate measurement, there are pilots that come here that have 99.9% prospect of passing and there are other with less than 50%. If you have struggled through your career with checks and retraining, give it some serious thought, but otherwise, it’s quite achievable. You don’t have a checker terminating training with impunity, they put a lot of thought into it, essentially they’re trying to get you through. Based on the number of pilots that we have, my guess is about 1% contribute to this forum, so it’s hard to get the full picture that is not colored by personal agendas. I suggest using your own professional network to locate a crew member that is here to get an accurate impression.