Originally Posted by
Nostoodian
If Thomas Cook goes the way of Monarch what would be the consequences at Manchester? Surely this would be a devastating blow. Although, after Monarch went bump the Airport recovered very quickly with existing carriers filling in on lost routes.
If Thomas Cook goes under surely other airlines will be licking their lips, and will be quick to profit from the demise of Thomas Cook. I can see some new & existing long haul airlines entering the fray at Manchester. Opportunities for Level, Norwegian, American, Virgin etc to mop up the mess.
The problem is in the short term these Airlines would find it difficult to find the necessary frames to fill in the gaps.
What's the procedure if Thomas Cook goes into administration? Would they they look for a new buyer? What happens to the massive debt? Will the administrator pay off some of the existing debts through asset sales? Do Thomas Cook own many of their own aircraft? How many aircraft do they own and how many are leased? Is Thomas Cook divided into separate companies? Is the Airline business separate from the Travel Agent? It's all a bit confusing.
The Thomas Cook situation seems a bit like the Jet Airways fiasco. Both Airlines groups buried under massive debts.
Wasn't their talk before of selling their airline businesses to pay of the debt of the group just leaving the Travel Agent?
Thomas Cook isn’t a travel agent, they are a tour operator with retail shops. At the moment everything is owned by the group ‘Thomas Cook’. The Fosun takeover would be a little more complex due to the ownership rules of an airline - so the tour operation majority owned by Fosun, and the airline majority owned by the banks (the debt) to satisfy that. Regarding buyers - we have already gone down this path. Thomas Cook asked if anyone was willing to purchase the airline, but they wanted £800/900m for it (which is essentially what the current deal is on the table for the whole business) - so in the event of a fire sale breakup it would be just that - parts seem to be more valuable as a whole, just as Monarch was. Fosun, along with a Turkish Operator who took a small interest in the tour operation part would likely look at some of those assets.
We are now down to a similar position we had with Monarch, whether their ATOL would be renewed for another year and if they can satisfy the CAA that there is funding to see them through.