Originally Posted by
Australopithecus
Yes, but in the meantime other operators are thinking about ULH, some are even rumoured to be eyeing Australia. If QF was to wait for the 777-8 which may be later cancelled they would surrender first mover advantage to a customer with the A350-1000ULR.
There isn’t a compelling reason for Boeing to do the -8 anytime soon. A -8F might be a different kettle of fish, but a freighter optimised MLW might be counter-productive for an ULH pax version. In any event the entire world demand for ULH can’t be 100 aircraft.
You know what this stuff costs-do you think the -8 engineering would be in the 150 million neighborhood, or am I still expecting to see 25¢ gasoline?
I expect the 777-8 to come before an 'X' freighter version, but as for the final product I don't think it would make much difference which came first. Freighter and passenger are enough different that both would reasonably well optimized (the big things for the freighter are the stronger floor and no windows - but the -9 has windows and passenger strength floors so not much effort there).
I don't think Boeing can do much of anything for $150 million - I suspect just the needed flight test program will cost that much. Depending on how much of the -8 engineering still needs to be done, I'd estimate the additional cost to put the -8 in production after the -9 is certified as somewhere in the $500 million to $1 billion range. Money well spent if it means another 100 aircraft sold.