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Old 9th Aug 2019, 14:13
  #888 (permalink)  
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 1,694
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
The GDP grew by 0.5% in the first quarter as companies stockpiled in expectation of Brexit. It fell in the second quarter as they used up those stocks without replenishing them. However it is true the world is sinking into recession, Germany has only narrowly missed entering recession. A full picture of the state of the UK economy will only become apparent at the end of the year.
I'd guess the UK is on course for growth this year of somewhere around 0.6%; given that with any luck stockpiling has already started in Q3, although there isn't much spare warehousing space left by all accounts for "re-stockpiling", so Q3 could come in at less than 0.5%, and if Boris Johnson crashes the economy in Q4 with a no deal Brexit, the figures could be a whole lot worse than -0.2% of Q2, particularly if one of the (welcome) consequences were a curtailing of the obscene retail excesses of the Christmas bunfight.

We'll see where we are when the Q4 figures are published in the spring.
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