PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - BREXIT
Thread: BREXIT
View Single Post
Old 6th Aug 2019, 15:30
  #808 (permalink)  
dr dre
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: The World
Posts: 548
Originally Posted by pax britanica View Post
However, the former US treasury secretary, Larry Summers, said the UK was "delusional" if it believed it could secure a post-Brexit trade deal with Washington.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Britain has no leverage, Britain is desperate... it needs an agreement very soon. When you have a desperate partner, that's when you strike the hardest bargain."
And size.
The UK GDP is half the size of Japan, one fifth of China (and rapidly shrinking) and one seventh of the US and the EU. How can it expect to negotiate a favorable trade deal with a major nation from a position of weakness? Even India will soon overtake it in the size of it's economy. If the UK loses Scotland and Northern Ireland eventually it will decrease in size by 15%. And trade agreements on average take 5-10 years to figure out. If the UK is desperate for any type of deal it'll rushed and full of errors, and not at all favorable to it's position. Even then a few years of no trade agreements which will have to occur if leave is accomplished on Oct 31st will contract the UK GDP even more, further weakening it's bargaining position. It'd be an ongoing cycle.

Plus sources in the US Congress have stated they will stop any UK-US trade deal unless something is solved with regards to the Irish border and backstop that won't break the Good Friday Agreement that looks unlikely.
dr dre is offline