Originally Posted by
Ascend Charlie
OK Manwell, let's look at this scenario from a real accident in 1975. A Chinook is carrying an external load on a training exercise.
..... What part of that accident was predictable to you?
My apologies AC, looking back over the posts I've missed an important piece of the puzzle.
At the start I did say a pilot could predict most failures, but not all, and didn't elaborate on that sufficiently. In fact I amplified that error in another response to you. Please forgive that slip of consciousness.
As you rightly suggested, the accident above is possibly an example of one of those very few unpredictable failures, but without additional information, we can't be certain. For example, did the machine provide a subtle clue to it's impending explosion, an unexplained vibration perhaps? Let's accept for a moment that it was unannounced, and these events do occur occasionally, then pilot skill and knowledge is necessary to minimize damage to craft and crew. That's the bit I missed, and it was a silly omission, but it happened and we didn't die so hopefully, we can all learn from it.
Your question about time to solo is irrelevant in the bigger picture, because the focus is on the safe and efficient operation of an aircraft, both in the air and on the ground - and I'm sure you've heard that before. If it takes an extra hour or even ten to solo, it's worth it if the pilot knows how to fly well enough to be able to control power + attitude. This was one of the hurdles I had to get over too before it's real significance became apparent, so I'm not surprised an ex-military man would place almost religious significance on time to solo. I certainly did. Ironically, the time taken to solo may or may not increase, depending on how much learning has to be undone. Additionally, the investment of a few extra hours in the ab initio phase will pay back much bigger returns in the longer run. Imagine the benefit of knowing how to fly before nav, night, IF, low level, and formation aerobatics training. By that, I mean knowing how to fly instinctively, without over-reliance on instruments. In fact, aircraft can be flown safely without any instruments at all if the pilot knows how to fly.